Africa’s Democratic Retreat Amid Conflict and Military Rule
A new report highlights a significant decline in democratic standards across the continent, driven by coups, conflict, and eroding civil liberties.
Democratic progress in Africa has reversed course over the past five years, according to the 2026 Global State of Democracy report. The study, released by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, indicates that the region has experienced more significant declines than advances since 2020. This downward trend is attributed primarily to the entrenchment of military rule, armed conflict, and restrictions on political freedoms.
The data reveals a stark imbalance, with 106 notable drops in democratic performance compared to only 53 improvements across Africa and West Asia. These regressions were concentrated in core areas such as the credibility of elections, the independence of parliaments, and access to justice. According to the report, these five specific factors accounted for the majority of the democratic erosion observed in the region during this period.
Military Rule and Electoral Restrictions
In several West African nations, the consolidation of military power has become a primary driver of democratic backsliding. The report cites Burkina Faso and Niger as examples where political freedoms have been curtailed and democratic institutions dissolved under the guise of national security. In Togo, the analysis points to alleged electoral irregularities and state-led repression of dissent, including attacks on press freedom, as key contributors to the decline in governance standards.
Tanzania’s 2025 election cycle has also drawn significant scrutiny. Observers from the Southern African Development Community reported widespread violence, the disqualification of opposition candidates, and the detention of leading political figures. While the United Nations Human Rights Council has called for the release of opposition leader Tundu Lissu, the report notes that such incidents have severely damaged public trust in the electoral process and the rule of law.
Conflict and Regional Instability
Armed conflict remains a central obstacle to democratic development, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan. The report details how ongoing violence has led to allegations of genocide, widespread sexual violence, and the destruction of essential infrastructure. These conditions have created environments where civil liberties are suspended, and the state’s capacity to protect its citizens is severely compromised, further undermining democratic norms.
However, the analysis emphasizes that conflict is not the sole driver of decline. Unconstitutional changes of government, particularly through coups, have played a significant role in destabilizing the region. This pattern of instability has disrupted political continuity and weakened the institutions necessary for long-term democratic consolidation, leaving many nations in a state of prolonged uncertainty.
Signs of Progress in Select States
Despite the broader negative trend, the report identifies pockets of improvement in several countries. In Gabon, the holding of elections following the 2023 coup has led to a significant advance in the category of elected government. Similarly, The Gambia has seen marked improvements in freedom of expression, supported by greater media pluralism and legal reforms that have reduced attacks on journalists since 2021.
Other nations, including Ghana, Mauritius, and South Africa, are noted as high performers in representation. Participation remains the strongest category across the continent, with a significant majority of African countries scoring in the mid-range. These examples suggest that while the overall trajectory is negative, targeted reforms and political will can still yield positive outcomes in specific areas of governance.
