Pakistan-US Ties Depend on Crisis, Not Commerce
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Islamabad and Washington are engaged in another transactional cycle. Unlike India, Pakistan lacks the deep institutional roots to sustain ties during periods of geopolitical calm.
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has long been defined by urgency rather than continuity. Two decades and a half after the September 11 attacks, the dynamic remains largely transactional. As noted by The Diplomat, the bond fluctuates based on immediate strategic needs, such as counterterrorism operations or regional mediation, rather than sustained commercial or institutional integration.
Currently, Islamabad is positioning itself as a critical intermediary in the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. While this offers a potential avenue for re-engagement, it also carries significant risk. Pakistani leaders face the possibility of becoming scapegoats if diplomatic efforts falter, a scenario that underscores the precarious nature of a relationship driven by crisis rather than structural stability.
History of Strategic Dependency
The trajectory of bilateral ties since 2001 illustrates a pattern of conditional partnership. Following the attacks, Pakistan shifted from a state under sanctions to a frontline logistical hub for the war in Afghanistan. In exchange for providing air corridors, intelligence, and military support, Islamabad received substantial financial aid and discounted military hardware. However, this cooperation was inherently fragile, plagued by mutual accusations of unfulfilled promises and a lack of long-term trust.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021 marked a significant turning point. With the primary strategic imperative gone, American political attention waned rapidly. Although institutional engagements in trade and health have continued, they have not generated enough momentum to keep the relationship robust. The current push for mediation in the Iran conflict appears to be another reactive measure, relying on Pakistan’s unique geopolitical position to serve U.S. interests in the region.
Contrasting with India's Model
The disparity between Pakistan-U.S. and India-U.S. relations highlights a critical structural difference. While Pakistan’s ties rely heavily on top-down political directives, India’s have evolved into a bottom-up ecosystem. According to analysts, India’s relationship with Washington has deepened through independent constituencies in technology, defense, and academia. This broad base of support allows the partnership to withstand political disagreements, such as those over trade or immigration, without collapsing.
Recent developments, including the expansion of the iCET mechanism into the TRUST framework, demonstrate India’s ability to lock in strategic cooperation across sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. In contrast, Pakistan lacks similar institutional anchors. Without independent commercial and professional ties, the relationship remains vulnerable to the ebb and flow of geopolitical crises, leaving Islamabad dependent on Washington’s immediate needs.
Future Trajectory of Engagement
The central question facing policymakers is whether Pakistan can develop independent economic and institutional drivers for its relationship with the United States. Currently, every revival of ties seems to require a new geopolitical shock to generate momentum. Observers will watch closely to see if the current mediation efforts yield lasting institutional benefits or if the relationship reverts to a dormant state once the immediate crisis subsides.
