Sudanese Migration Routes to Europe Face Heightened Risks

The influx of Sudanese migrants arriving in Mediterranean Europe has intensified as the domestic conflict continues to displace millions. According to a September 2026 report from the UNHCR Regional Bureau for Europe, this movement is primarily driven by unmet protection and basic needs in initial host countries. The data indicates that while the majority of displaced persons remain in neighboring regions, a significant number are undertaking perilous journeys across the Mediterranean.

This analysis draws on extensive fieldwork, including 173 protection monitoring interviews conducted in Southeastern Europe between January 2025 and July 2026. Focus group discussions in Greece, Italy, and Spain further contextualize the challenges faced by these individuals. The report emphasizes that those unable to return to Sudan due to the conflict are likely in need of international protection, urging states to uphold non-refoulement principles.

Displacement Drives Onward Movement

Since April 2023, Sudan has endured severe conflict resulting in widespread civilian harm and large-scale displacement. By July 2026, more than 11.4 million people had been displaced, with over 4.5 million fleeing the country. The burden is concentrated in seven neighboring countries, particularly Chad, Egypt, Libya, and South Sudan. However, the inability to meet basic needs in these first countries of asylum is pushing many to seek refuge in Europe, despite the dangers of the journey.

The report notes that journeys to Europe are often long and hazardous. Insights from focus groups reveal that the decision to move onward is not merely a preference but a response to deteriorating conditions in initial host states. UNHCR maintains that persons from Sudan who cannot return due to the conflict fit the profile for international protection. The organization continues to call on states to ensure access to territory and asylum for those fleeing the crisis.

Methodology and Data Collection

The findings are based on a combination of arrivals data and qualitative research. The UNHCR team conducted 173 protection monitoring interviews with Sudanese nationals in Southeastern Europe over an 18-month period. Additionally, focus group discussions were held in key entry points such as Greece, Italy, and Spain. These methods provide a nuanced view of the experiences and perspectives of those making the journey, although the results are not statistically representative of all refugees in the region.

According to the GN auto geopolitics/africa: Sudan conflict source, the report aims to analyze the profiles, routes, and risks associated with Sudanese migration to Europe. The data collection period covers a critical phase of the conflict, offering insights into how the situation has evolved. The report serves as a tool for policymakers and humanitarian actors to understand the specific challenges faced by this population group.

Future Challenges and Protections

As the conflict in Sudan persists, the pressure on European borders is expected to continue. The report underscores the need for robust protection mechanisms and safe access to asylum procedures. States are urged to respect the principle of non-refoulement, ensuring that no one is returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. The ongoing displacement crisis requires a coordinated international response.

Looking ahead, the focus will likely remain on improving conditions in first countries of asylum to reduce the push factors driving onward movement. Monitoring the routes and risks will be essential for adapting humanitarian responses. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further increases in arrivals if the conflict does not de-escalate. Stakeholders must remain vigilant to the evolving needs of displaced populations.