Syrian Transition Faces Security and Economic Headwinds

A senior United Nations official cautioned the Security Council that Syria’s political transition remains precarious due to persistent security violations and deepening economic distress. According to Claudio Cordone, the UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria, these combined pressures threaten to derail recent legislative progress and the return of displaced populations.

Cordone emphasized that security challenges cannot be resolved through unilateral military actions or indefinite foreign presence. He stated that violations of Syrian sovereignty must end and that the 1974 Disengagement Agreement must be strictly respected to allow for a sustainable political process.

Military Tensions in Southern Regions

The envoy reported that active military operations in southern Syria continue to strain regional stability. He described frequent incursions, the establishment of temporary checkpoints, and artillery fire in areas including Quneitra and western Daraa. These actions are viewed as direct breaches of the existing disengagement framework.

Contextualizing the situation, it is noted that Israel expanded its control over the buffer zone and Mount Hermon positions following the change in Syria's leadership in late 2024. The UN maintains that localized tensions in Suwayda should be managed by Syrian actors without disruptive external interference, adhering to the roadmap established in September 2025.

Economic Shocks and Humanitarian Strain

UN Under-Secretary-General Tom Fletcher highlighted that disruptions in key maritime routes are significantly increasing the cost of essential goods. A recent sharp rise in diesel prices has impacted bakeries, water systems, and heating supplies. The minimum expenditure basket for basic needs has climbed by 33 percent since mid-2025, forcing aid organizations to reduce food rations for vulnerable families.

The funding gap for critical sectors remains substantial, with food and education programs currently underfunded. Fletcher warned that these economic pressures are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, making it increasingly difficult for international agencies to meet the needs of the population despite voluntary return efforts.

Displacement and Recovery Obstacles

While millions have returned to their homes since late 2024, millions more remain displaced, with a significant portion living in camps. The presence of unexploded ordnance continues to pose a lethal barrier to recovery, with hundreds of casualties recorded since the previous year. This contamination blocks access to agricultural land, hindering economic reconstruction.

Syrian civil society representatives urged international donors to support merit-based public appointments and convene a dedicated reconstruction conference. According to GN geopolitics/un, addressing these structural issues is essential for long-term stability, requiring a shift away from political loyalty toward competent governance and sustainable economic development.